As first reported by The Athletic, John Collins has raised some concerns about how the Atlanta Hawk’s offense is being run by Trae Young. He went on to say that Young is his “brother regardless.” This… is bad. There just isn’t any other way to say it. Atlanta is such a young team, and I quite enjoy watching them, but this early in the season, I don’t think it can be anything but bad to have a riff between your two brightest young stars.
Why is John Collins upset?
Well, one can only assume, but I think I have a good idea. This past offseason, Collins turned down a $90 million contract extension, citing that he wants a max deal, the kind that you’ve seen the likes of Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram, and Markelle Fultz get in the past few weeks. Collins has decided to bet on himself instead of taking the guaranteed money and running with it. Bold, to say the least. The biggest case of a “bet on yourself” moment like that going wrong is with Nerlens Noel a few years ago. The Dallas Mavericks offered him a four-year, $70 million deal in 2017, and since then he has only (I say only because in NBA terms, it is not a lot of money) $15 million. That’s quite a big gamble that did not pay off at all. With this kind of risk in mind, Collins would obviously want to have quite a statistical year for himself, so that a team, even if it isn’t Atlanta, would back up the Brinks truck for him. Instead of having a “breakout” year, Collins so far has stuck to the status quo. 16 points and 7.7 rebounds per game on 50/40/80 shooting splits.
Good? Yes.
Eye popping? Not really.
Players want the ball in their hands to see what they can do. That is only natural. With the system that the Hawks are running, it doesn’t seem like Collins will be getting that wish granted anytime soon. As made evident to me by Kevin O’Conner from The Ringer, on his and Chris Vernon’s podcast “The Mismatch” which you can find here, Trae Young is in the middle of two different playing styles. One being the fluid, motion offense that Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors run, where everyone gets the ball, and everyone makes plays. The other being a more stagnant, pick and roll heavy, stand in the corner if you aren’t the ballhandler style that James Harden and the Houston Rockets play. Who’s to say which style is better? I certainly have my opinion. The Warrior’s offense has one three NBA Championships while the Rockets haven’t won one since I was born. Even if you take away the Kevin Durant years of Warriors basketball, they still have one championship more than the Rockets. Not only has it been proven to be a winning style of play, but less players get frustrated about the offensive scheme. The only person I can think of in the last 6 years being upset with the way that the Warriors play basketball was Kevin Durant.
Trae is leaning towards the James Harden style of play as of late, and I think that could be the biggest point of Collin’s frustration. Collins is a versatile and talented player, but it’s hard to see what he can do if all he’s doing is standing in the corner or setting a pick. Collins wants a bigger role on the team it seems, and unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll be able to do that in Atlanta. The Hawks have clearly given the keys to Trae Young, and this is their franchise cornerstone for the next decade, whether Collins likes it or not.
So What’s Next for Collins?
It’s hard to tell, honestly. The Hawks don’t HAVE to trade him. Either Collins signs a qualifying offer sheet for about $5.8 million and becomes an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2022, or he can sign an offer sheet to any team that wants to have his services this upcoming offseason, and the Hawks will have a chance to match any contract he signs. Both of these are pretty standard free agent things, but I don’t think it’ll stop there for Collins and the Hawks.
The Hawks might pull a Sacramento Kings and decide to not match the contract that Collins would sign, letting him walk for nothing. That isn’t super realistic, just because you want to get something for a player that you’re going to lose, but it does happen. What is increasingly more likely, is that Collins will sign an offer sheet from a different team, the Hawks will match, and then they will try to trade him to get assets back. With frontcourt players like Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari, and Onyeka Okongwu, the Hawks don’t technically need another forward on their books, so they could look to bolster their guard rotation. Or maybe they just punt entirely on the Collins situation, and just trade for salary cap fillers, and draft picks. With that being the most likely scenario to take place, where could Collins end up?
San Antonio Spurs
This might be a long shot, but hear me out. The Spurs are going to have A TON of cap space after this season. It is staggering. DeMar DeRozan is coming off the books, and there are rumors that he wishes to play in his hometown of Los Angeles, most likely for the Lakers. LaMarcus Aldridge is 35 years old, and I doubt the Spurs will offer him another contract, especially not one like what he had. Rudy Gay and Patty Mills are both coming off the books, but I expect the Spurs to keep Patty Mills as a backup point guard, and he’s been there forever, so it would be bad PR to let him walk, not to mention he’s averaging the most points per game of his career at 32 years old. Trey Lyles is probably not coming back, and DeMarre Carroll is only owed $1.2 million next year.
Assuming that all of those players are coming off the books, the Spurs have about $76 million in cap room next season they have to fill. Instead of letting all of those players walk, why not resign Aldridge, Gay, and Lyles to one year deals and then package them with a first round pick, and a couple second round picks for Collins? Atlanta gets the cap space they’ll need for 2023, and the Spurs get back a young star forward to pair with Derrick White and Dejounte Murray. Win/win in my book.
Boston Celtics
Now, this isn’t technically something that I would want as a Celtics fan. Yes, Collins is very good. I just think that the chemistry right now is really good with the team, and I wouldn’t want to mess with that. However, if the team starts trending south, Danny Ainge may very well pull the trigger on Collins this season, rather than next. There have been plenty of rumors about the C’s acquiring Collins’ services, so who would we send away?
Most likely, some of the young bucks, and draft picks. If we were able to do this, I think that we would send something like Daniel Theis, Romeo Langford, Carsen Edwards, Tremont Waters, and a first round pick for Collins. The Hawks get young assets, players who can score, and the Celtics get a piece that would fit their offence nicely. The C’s starting five would look like Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, John Collins, and Tristan Thompson, with Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, and Payton Pritchard leading the bench. I wouldn’t hate it, I’m against it right now, but if things go south, let’s make a trade.
Cleveland Cavaliers
There is no fire here. There isn’t even smoke. I am completely speculating here, but I do think that it would be a good fit. The biggest play here is that Andre Drummond has an expiring contract worth $28 million, along with Dante Exum, and JaVale McGee’s contract coming off the books after this season. I think that the Cavs take all of those contracts, along with two first round picks, and a second round pick, and send them to the Hawks for Collins. The Hawks get cap space for next offseason, and the Cavs can pair the newly minted “SexLand” backcourt with a young stud big man, all while Kevin Love is the calm veteran presence to lead the team into the next iteration of Cavaliers basketball.
Time will only tell for what will happen with Collins and the Hawks. I’ve seen it blow up in a lot of team’s faces, but I’ve also seen things be patched and worked out internally. Just make sure you grab your popcorn and enjoy the show.
Round The Game 
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